Main Street Business Insights

8 Predictions for 2026: What Small Businesses Need to Know

What trends will shape Main Street businesses in 2026? And how can you prepare now? 
In this annual predictions episode, host Matt Wagner analyzes the intersection of society, technology, and economic trends to forecast what's ahead for small businesses and Main Streets. Drawing from consumer data, industry reports, and Main Street America's latest research, Matt identifies eight key trends that will impact everything from retail strategies to food and beverage concepts to financing models. 
Before looking ahead, Matt reviews his 2025 predictions — scoring a win on retail growth projections (flat to stagnant when adjusted for inflation), a loss on GPL-1 drug impacts (a year too early), and a draw on AI adoption by nonprofits (usage is there, but not in the predicted areas). 
Here are the eight predictions for 2026: 
Big Impacts from the K-Shaped Economy: Upper-income households with stock market gains will drive spending while lower-income groups face stagnation, creating an economy reliant on less than 30% of consumers. Small businesses with fewer than 50 employees shed 120,000 jobs in November 2025 alone. Strategy: Focus on deals that demonstrate value for both income levels. 
Big Shifts in Social Media: New laws restricting children's social media use in the UK and Australia, declining alcohol consumption correlated with social media use, and growing displeasure with online discourse will drive consumers toward in-person connections. Result: Experiential shopping and "plug-in spaces" will benefit, but reaching consumers requires shifting away from traditional social media to websites, Google profiles, and word-of-mouth. 
Opportunities for Main Street Manufacturers: America 250 celebrations combined with trade isolation create market opportunities for small-scale manufacturers. Main Street America's new Made Originals program will support the 25,000+ manufacturers and brand creators in the network. 
Younger Generations Gain Importance: As boomers age out, Millennials and Gen Z will drive spending and retail sector shifts. Businesses must focus marketing and outreach on these generations' needs and preferences. 
New Options for Finance and Ownership: The largest wealth transfer in American history ($100 trillion estimated) combined with Millennials' and Gen Z's challenges with individual asset ownership will drive creative financing structures including co-ops, Employee Ownership Trusts (EOT), owner financing models, and customer capital platforms like NuMarket. 
E-Commerce Moves to Brick-and-Mortar: Direct-to-consumer brands face 40% increases in customer acquisition costs and are opening physical stores as showrooms and brand-building tools. Online has become transactional; consumers want experiential consumption and community engagement. 
Changes in Food and Beverage: Only 54% of U.S. adults now consume alcohol (lowest in 90 years), most pronounced among 18-34-year-olds. GPL-1 drugs depress cravings. Expect decreases in alcohol-dependent restaurants/bars and rises in late-night coffee and non-alcoholic venues. Alpha-Gal allergies and rising beef prices will shift menus toward non-beef and vegetarian/vegan options. 
Circular Retail Expands Beyond Apparel: Closed-loop systems keeping products in use through reuse, repair, and recycling will migrate to more sectors. Smart business model for diversifying revenue without massive cost increases—example: bike shops that sell, repair, trade-in, refurbish, repurpose parts, and rent equipment. 
Bonus Prediction: 2026 is the Year of Small Business! Our yet-to-be-released 2026 Directors' Survey shows "supporting businesses and entrepreneurs" as the #1 programming priority, and small business programming had the greatest community impact. With new resources including the Small Business Hub, Made Originals, grant programs, and the Hartford Small Business Accelerator, Main Street programs will cement their support for the small business sector. 
Whether you're a Main Street director planning 2026 programming, a business owner adapting your strategy, or an entrepreneur considering launch, these predictions provide a roadmap for navigating the year ahead. 
Note: At the end of February, we’ll pause new episodes of the podcast as we shift focus to the Small Business Hub and Made Originals programming. Explore our extensive back catalog here for insights on succession planning, disaster recovery, scaling businesses, and more. 
Connect: 
Review the 2025 Director’s Survey results 
Review the latest Small Business Survey results 
Listen to past predictions episodes here and here 
Learn about Made Originals 
Join MSA’s Small Biz Hub 
 
Episode Links: 
Watch video episode 
Listen on Apple Podcasts 
Listen on Spotify 
Subscribe for updates 
Join us next time for more insights into the evolving landscape of Main Street business. 
 

Small-Scale Manufacturing on Main Street (The Sweet Granada Chocolate Shop)

In this episode, host Matt Wagner sits down with Kim Redeker, owner of The Sweet Granada Chocolate Shop in Emporia, Kansas.
Over 21 years, Kim has grown from a 500-square-foot storefront with two employees (herself and her mom) to a 3,200-square-foot production facility employing 21-28 people depending on the season, plus two retail locations. In 2025, The Sweet Granada was also voted the #2 best candy shop by USA Today Readers!
Kim's journey reveals the strategic advantages small-scale manufacturers have on Main Street: the ability to jump on viral trends (Dubai bars, cocoa bombs) before mass market catches up, the capacity to create custom products quickly using local technology, and how community connection keeps dollars and talent local. 
Discover Kim's approach to: 
Expansion decisions and timing: Why she initially expanded too slowly due to brand identity concerns, and how splitting production from retail solved the challenge. 
Speed to market advantages: Capitalizing on viral trends with six-month windows before mass producers flood the market, generating unexpected revenue during slow seasons. 
Community ecosystem support: Leveraging Emporia Main Street, the local Small Business Development Center chapter, and the local fab lab for custom mold generation and manufacturing solutions. 
Navigating cost pressures: Adapting to cocoa price increases (three major increases in 12 months) through loyalty programs, packaging optimization, and strategic pricing. 
Wholesale growth strategies: How offsite production created capacity for wholesale distribution across Kansas, driving retail traffic from unexpected markets. 
Technology and scaling: Using fab lab technology for small-run custom molds, exploring AI applications, and planning equipment investments for signature product scaling 
Labor and hiring evolution: Moving beyond 15-minute interviews to more comprehensive hiring and coaching processes 
Whether you're a small-scale producer considering expansion, a Main Street director supporting makers and manufacturers, or a business owner wondering how to compete with mass market, this conversation offers practical insights on building a manufacturing business without leaving downtown. 
Join us as Kim shares why her only regret is not starting sooner, how small makers make communities more interesting, and what it means to stay "light on your feet" as an entrepreneur. 
This episode also previews Main Street America's new Made Originals initiative, a soon-to-come program supporting small-scale manufacturers and brand creators in the Main Street network through giving access to national markets, education, certification, and access to capital. 
Get a limited edition box of Made Originals chocolates from Main Street maker, The Sweet Granada Chocolate Shop! Use code MSA26 for 30% off through 2/14.
Connect: 
Learn about The Sweet Granada Chocolate Shop 
Get a special Made Originals chocolate bar set! 
Learn about Emporia Main Street 
Learn about Made Originals 
Join MSA’s Small Biz Hub 
Episode Links: 
Watch video interview 
Listen on Apple Podcasts 
Listen on Spotify 
Subscribe for updates 
Join us next time for more insights into the evolving landscape of Main Street business. 
 

Growing a Business with Intention (Honeybee Sage Wellness & Apothecary)

How do you build a scalable business without losing its origins; what makes it truly special? In this episode, host Matt Wagner sits down with Angela Mallett, founder of Honeybee Sage Wellness & Apothecary in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
In their conversation, Angela shares her intentional approach to growth, one that prioritizes community care and cultural healing over rapid expansion. Angela's journey began with massage therapy and a calling to bring ancestral herbal wisdom back to underserved communities. Starting in 2018 in the heart of Milwaukee's 53206 zip code — one of the city's most challenging areas — Honeybee Sage has become more than a tea shop. It's an apothecary rooted in the healing traditions of her great-great uncle, a root doctor from Mississippi, offering herbal remedies as medicine.
Discover Angela's approach to:
Strategic location decisions: Why she chose her location specifically to serve underserved communities while remaining accessible to all demographics.
Scaling with integrity: Her vision to franchise without losing community focus
Building through adversity: Navigating her father's death, a stroke, and a dissolved business partnership all within the first seven months of operation.
Team development: Growing from solo operator to a management structure that allows expansion while maintaining quality and culture.
Mission-driven business: Operating on faith and purpose rather than fear of economic uncertainty, with the goal of creating a "global community of homegrown healers".
Creating healing spaces: Designing environments where nervous systems regulate before customers even order tea.
Whether you're an entrepreneur considering expansion, a Main Street director supporting mission-driven businesses, or a business owner wondering how to scale without sacrificing values, this conversation offers a refreshing perspective on intentional growth. Join us as Angela shares why she works "like she doesn't need the money," how herbal tea serves as accessible medicine, and what it means to be a professional "space creator" for community healing.

Recovering After Catastrophe (DT's Blue Ridge Java)

About the Episode
What happens after a natural disaster hits your Main Street? This episode provides insights on how Main Street leaders and business owners can learn how to be better prepared for disaster from others who have recently gone through recovery efforts.
In this special roundtable episode, host Matt Wagner sits down with community leaders from Spruce Pine, North Carolina, one year after Hurricane Helene devastated their downtown. Featuring Mayor Philip Hise, owners of DT’s Blue Ridge Java David Niven and Zan Sistare, Main Street Director Spencer Bost, and Town Manager Daniel Stines, this conversation goes beyond the immediate aftermath to address the complex realities of long-term recovery.
Located in the Appalachian Mountains with a population of approximately 2,300, Spruce Pine faced complete loss of water, power, and communication for 17-21 days. The town is now managing an estimated $50 million in municipal damages while supporting the recovery of downtown businesses like DT's Blue Ridge Java.  
DT’s Blue Ridge Java was a recipient of Main Street America's Backing Small Businesses Disaster Recovery Grant supported by American Express – in the episode, you’ll hear a bit about how the grant helped their recovery efforts. 
Discover the critical lessons they learned about: 
Why communication infrastructure failure was more devastating than physical damage 
What volunteer organizations made the difference in the first critical weeks 
The reality of 15+ day delays in federal emergency response 
Building improvements and infrastructure planning that matter for future mitigation 
Whether your community faces hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, or wildfires, these lessons apply. Learn what actually helps, what doesn't, and ways to prepare your Main Street before disaster strikes. 
Join us as we hear directly from this resilient community about their experiences with loss, recovery, and rebuilding—and what other Main Street leaders and business owners can learn from their story. 
Looking for more disaster resilience resources? Download Main Street America’s Disaster Recovery & Resilience Toolkit here. 
Connect: 
Learn about Downtown Spruce Pine 
Learn about the Town of Spruce Pine 
Learn about North Carolina Main Street & Rural Planning Center 
Learn about Main Street America's Backing Small Businesses Disaster Recovery Grant 
Learn about DT’s Blue Ridge Java 
Episode Links: 
Listen on Apple Podcasts
Listen on Spotify
Subscribe for updates

Fall 2025 Small Business Trends

About the Episode
In this data-driven conversation, host Matt Wagner sits down with Mike Powe, Senior Director of Research at Main Street America, to break down findings from their Fall 2025 Small Business Survey. The survey of 1,295 businesses reveals that small business owners are experiencing persistent revenue and profitability challenges, broad societal instability impacting operations, and the measurable advantage of Main Street program support (nearly a full point higher confidence and 11% better revenue stability).
Takeaways
Business confidence hitting its second-lowest point on record
Which types of businesses are faring better (professional services, established businesses, those with more employees)
How Main Street program support translates to real business outcomes
The characteristics that define authentic Main Street businesses 
Episode Links:
Listen on Apple Podcasts
Listen on Spotify
Subscribe for updates
Amex Shop Small Grants Program
We have some super exciting news to share with you all! Main Street America and American Express are teaming up to launch a new grant program for small business owners. The Amex Shop Small Grants Program will provide an initial $5 million to fund 250 grants of $20,000 each to eligible small business owners across the U.S. The application will open on this Small Business Saturday, November 29, 2025. 
And get this. Every time an American Express Card Member shops with their eligible Card at a qualifying U.S. small business on November 29, American Express will donate an additional $1 to fund additional grants.  So, there’s an extra incentive to get out there and support local businesses on Small Business Saturday! You can find eligible small businesses in your community on the Shop Small Map. American Express Debit Cards are not eligible.”  
Find more information on our website at mainstreet.org/shopsmallgrant.

Holiday Prep 2025

About the Episode
How can you maximize holiday revenue when you're facing tariff uncertainty, shifting consumer confidence, and limited time to prepare for the holiday season? In a new episode of Main Street Business Insights, host Matt Wagner breaks down the 2025 holiday shopping landscape with actionable strategies drawn from our survey of 1,100 small businesses, plus the latest consumer research showing where shoppers are actually spending, and how they want to shop.
Takeaways
More than one third of small businesses are cautious about inventory purchases.
Gift cards and clothing accessories are top spending categories for 2025.
Millennials are expected to spend the most during the holidays.
AI tools are increasingly used for gift ideas and price comparisons.
Consumers are concerned about tariffs affecting prices and shopping plans.
In-store shopping remains competitive despite the rise of online shopping.
70% of Gen Z plans to shop at local or independent retailers.
Creating a sensory-rich in-store experience is crucial for attracting customers.
Social media usage varies significantly across generations for shopping inspiration.
Small businesses should focus on hyper-personalization and limited inventory options.
Episode Links:
Watch video interview
Listen on Apple Podcasts
Listen on Spotify
Subscribe for updates
Amex Shop Small Grants Program
We have some super exciting news to share with you all! Main Street America and American Express are teaming up to launch a new grant program for small business owners. The Amex Shop Small Grants Program will provide an initial $5 million to fund 250 grants of $20,000 each to eligible small business owners across the U.S. The application will open on this Small Business Saturday, November 29, 2025. 
And get this. Every time an American Express Card Member shops with their eligible Card at a qualifying U.S. small business on November 29, American Express will donate an additional $1 to fund additional grants.  So, there’s an extra incentive to get out there and support local businesses on Small Business Saturday! You can find eligible small businesses in your community on the Shop Small Map. American Express Debit Cards are not eligible.”  
Find more information on our website at mainstreet.org/shopsmallgrant.

Succession Planning Across Generations (Tiger’s General Store)

About the Episode
How do you successfully transition a business across five generations without creating resentment or burning out the next generation? This episode tackles the complex realities of family business succession planning through the story of Tiger's General Store in Hayesville, North Carolina — a business that has operated continuously since 1875.
In this three-generation conversation, host Matt Wagner sits down with Rob Tiger (fourth generation), Holly Tiger (married into the business), and Lauren Tiger (fifth generation) to explore the intentional decisions that have kept this 150-year-old business thriving. From Rob's initial reluctance ("I'll give you a year") to Lauren's carefully structured path that required building her own career first, this family reveals the honest conversations and strategic choices behind successful succession.
Discover practical strategies for:
Creating choice, not obligation: Why forcing Lauren to attend college far from home and build her own career was critical to preventing resentment
Managing the transition timeline: How Lauren balances full-time physical therapy work with increasing store responsibilities while maintaining benefits
Adapting without losing authenticity: Staying relevant for 150 years by asking teenagers what's trending while maintaining the store's character
Building community connections: Why giving back and being visible in local nonprofits is non-negotiable for small town businesses
The reality of work-life balance: Honest talk about 10–12-hour days, late nights, and the delegation challenges that come with family businesses
Keeping customers engaged across generations: How one family has shopped there annually for 11 years, each visit a cherished tradition
Whether you're planning a business transition, considering buying a family business, or wondering how to stay relevant in a small market for decades, this episode provides a candid look at what actually works — and what doesn't — in multi-generational business ownership.
Join us as we hear directly from three generations about losing money in the early years, evolving from groceries to gifts, resisting pressure to go fully online, and why consistency matters more than perfection in small business success.
Special thanks to Sherry Adams, North Carolina Main Street Program, for coordinating this episode.
Connect:
Learn about Tiger's General Store in Hayesville, NC
Learn about Historic Hayesville, Inc.
Learn about NC Main Street & Rural Planning Center 
Episode Links:
Watch video interview
Listen on Apple Podcasts
Listen on Spotify
Subscribe for updates

Testing a Business Model Before Scaling (Mendo LEAP)

When investors and banks say "no," how do you prove your business concept can work? This episode explores a strategic approach to launching a business that up-and-coming entrepreneurs could consider: launching a beta facility to prove market viability before scaling. 
In this episode, host Matt Wagner sits down with Megan Peterson, social innovator and founder of Mendo LEAP in Ukiah, California. Located in Mendocino County, Mendo LEAP is an adaptive play center providing an inclusive space for children of all abilities to Learn, Explore, Adapt, and Play (LEAP).  
Discover how Megan turned funding rejection into an opportunity to build a stronger, more sustainable business model by: 
Starting small and testing rigorously before scaling 
Creating win-win partnerships that reduce capital requirements for everyone 
Building feedback loops into operations from day one 
Designing collaborative business models in resource-scarce environments 
Whether you're facing funding challenges, launching in an underserved market, or looking to validate your business concept before going all-in, this episode provides a practical framework for de-risking your venture while building community support. 
Join us as we hear directly from Megan about her journey from new mom to driven entrepreneur, the many lessons learned, and what other small business owners frankly can take from her story. 
Connect: 
Check out Mendo LEAP’s website 
Follow Mendo LEAP on Facebook 
Follow Mendo LEAP on Instagram 
Learn about the Ukiah Main Street Program 
Learn about California Main Street 
Episode Links: 
- Watch video interview 
- Listen on Apple Podcasts 
- Listen on Spotify 
- Subscribe for updates 

Leveraging Nostalgia as a Marketing Tool (Peppermint Stick Candy Store)

Show Notes: 
Join host Matt Wagner for his conversation with Rachael Kehler, owner of The Peppermint Stick Candy Store in downtown Boyertown, Pennsylvania. In this episode, Matt and Rachael discuss her journey to entrepreneurship, leveraging nostalgia as a marketing tool, small town tourism, and more. 
In this episode, we dive deep into: 
- Rachael’s Journey to Entrepreneurship: Rachael explains her beginnings as a business owner. The idea for a candy store was sparked while watching visitors explore downtown Boyertown after riding a newly installed tourist train. With Rachael’s entrepreneurial spirit matched with her husband’s historic renovation skills, they created an old-fashioned candy shop and ice cream parlor as a feel-good destination for tourists and residents alike. 
- Harnessing Nostalgia in Your Business: As both a business owner and history lover, Rachael has learned that everything – even candy – has a story. Leveraging the feelings and memories associated with your products can endear customers to your business – and invite new people to walk through your door. 
- Keeping Up Modern Technology: If you walk into Peppermint Stick Candy, you’ll feel like you were transported back in time to the 1940s. But the marketing tools and techniques that made you want to visit in the first place are firmly planted in the age of AI. Rachael uses modern marketing tools like Grammarly, Google Gemini, and more to form creative marketing campaigns and stay hyper-productive as a busy small business owner. 
Connect: 
Peppermint Stick’s website 
Follow Peppermint Stick on Facebook 
Follow Peppermint Stick on Instagram 
Learn about Building a Better Boyertown
Episode Links: 
Watch video interview 
Listen on Apple Podcasts 
Listen on Spotify 
Subscribe for updates 
Join us next week for more insights into the evolving landscape of Main Street business. 

Building Business Through Cultural Connection (Plena Mercancía)

Join host Matt Wagner for his conversation with Daphne Labault, owner of Plena Mercancía in Chicago, Illinois. In this episode, Daphne, a Puerto Rican entrepreneur, shares her inspiring journey opening a coffee shop that also serves as a cultural hub in Chicago. Daphne discusses the challenges she faced after Hurricane Maria, her passion for supporting Puerto Rican artisans, and the importance of community in her business model.  
She highlights the invaluable support of The Puerto Rican Cultural Center (The PRCC), the realities of store ownership, and her vision of creating a supportive network for fellow entrepreneurs and artisans. Throughout the conversation, Daphne emphasizes the significance of creating meaningful connections with her customers and the role of her store in reconnecting the Puerto Rican diaspora with their culture. 
Daphne received small business development support to open her storefront through The Puerto Rican Cultural Center’s Mercado del Pueblo on North Avenue in Humboldt Park, Chicago. The PRCC received construction and operating support for the site and its programs through The Hartford Small Business Accelerator Grant Program in partnership with Main Street America. 
 
Connect: 
Follow Plena Mercancía on Instagram 
Check out the Puerto Rican Cultural Center 
Learn more about The Hartford Small Business Accelerator Grant Program 
Episode Links: 
- Watch video interview 
- Listen on Apple Podcasts 
- Listen on Spotify 
- Subscribe for updates